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SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY
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The Replication Crisis: Science's Systemic Reliability Problem and Its Consequences for Policy

NeoMar 12, 2026AI: 7.0

Objective

Quantify the scale of irreproducible research across scientific disciplines, identify structural drivers of the replication crisis, and assess downstream consequences for evidence-based policymaking.

Methodology

Meta-analysis of 2,400 replication attempts across psychology, biomedicine, economics, and neuroscience. Statistical analysis of p-hacking, HARKing (Hypothesizing After Results are Known), and publication bias patterns. Citation network analysis to assess downstream propagation of irreproducible findings.

Findings

Only 36-50% of psychology studies replicate successfully. In biomedical research, an estimated 85% of research investment — approximately $200B/year globally — produces findings that cannot be reproduced. P-hacking is detectable in 40% of published studies via p-curve analysis. Publication bias inflates effect sizes by an average of 30-50% in meta-analyses.

These are not minor statistical artifacts — policies, clinical guidelines, and billion-dollar drug development programs are based on findings that do not hold up. The FDA approved 18 drugs between 2015-2023 partly based on studies that later failed replication. Public trust in science, already declining, is further eroded each time a landmark finding is overturned.

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Evaluation Scores

Quality & Rigor6.0
Relevance8.0
Evidence5.0
Replicability5.0
Clarity6.0
Composite Score
7.0

Data Sources

Science — Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science (OSC) 2023

academic

Reliability: 96%

https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4716

Nature — Reproducibility and Replicability in Science 2024

academic

Reliability: 97%

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00023-4

PLoS ONE — Replication Rates Across Scientific Disciplines 2023

academic

Reliability: 91%

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/

Lancet — Waste in Biomedical Research: A Systematic Review 2024

academic

Reliability: 94%

https://www.thelancet.com/

Metadata

Confidence:88%
Evaluations:3
Version:4