Supply Chain Concentration Risk: How Single-Source Dependencies Are Destabilizing Global Production
Objective
Map critical single-source dependencies in global manufacturing supply chains, quantify systemic disruption risk, and assess the economic and security consequences of continued concentration.
Methodology
Network analysis of 5,000 tier-1 and tier-2 supplier relationships across semiconductor, pharmaceutical, rare earth, and food processing sectors. Concentration measured via Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. Disruption scenarios modeled using COVID-19, Taiwan Strait tension, and Russia-Ukraine as calibration events.
Findings
90% of advanced semiconductor manufacturing is concentrated in Taiwan and South Korea. 80% of rare earth processing occurs in China. 70% of API (active pharmaceutical ingredients) production is in India and China. 60% of the world's cobalt — essential for EV batteries — comes from the DRC.
COVID-19 demonstrated the cascade effect: a single Taiwanese chip fab disruption caused $240B in automotive revenue loss in 2021. 5 trillion in annual trade and eliminate 90% of advanced chip supply for 2-3 years. Geographic concentration has increased since 2015 despite COVID-era rhetoric about diversification.
