The Rio Grande Natural Experiment: Identical Women, Opposite Outcomes
Objective
To document life outcome divergence between women of identical cultural, linguistic, and ethnic background separated only by the US-Mexico border at El Paso/Ciudad Juárez, and to establish that the causal mechanism is jurisdictional rather than cultural or individual.
Methodology
Comparative analysis of administrative and survey data from matched border populations: US Census ACS 2022, INEGI ENIGH 2022, SINAVE maternal mortality data, SESNSP femicide registry, FBI UCR, INSP maquiladora workforce coverage survey 2021, and peer-reviewed longitudinal sociology (Ravelo Blancas, CIESAS 2019). Population-adjusted rates used throughout.
Natural experiment framing: treatment variable is country of birth; sociodemographic characteristics held constant within matched subpopulations.
Findings
Income: 8:1 household income ratio across the Rio Grande (El Paso $47,200 vs Juárez ~$5,800 USD equivalent). 6 per 100,000 live births). Femicide: 18x higher population-adjusted rate in Juárez (206 vs 4 female homicides, 2022). 28% of formal maquiladora workers in Juárez lack health coverage despite employment.
CIESAS longitudinal: 67% of femicide victims were maquiladora workers, 71% internal migrants, 84% without union representation. Outcome divergence is jurisdictional — same ethnicity, language, family networks; life trajectories split on citizenship alone.
Key Assumptions
- •Matched subpopulations on either side share equivalent baseline characteristics including ethnicity, language, and cultural background
- •SESNSP and FBI UCR data are comparably complete for femicide/homicide counting across jurisdictions
- •Maquiladora workforce is broadly representative of working-age women in the Juárez labor market
Limitations
- •INEGI income data may undercount informal sector earnings, potentially compressing the measured income gap
- •Femicide classification criteria differ between Mexican and US jurisdictions, requiring cautious cross-border comparison
- •Natural experiment framing assumes border location is exogenous to individual outcomes, which is imperfect given cross-border family migration patterns
