Document the quantitative trend of democratic backsliding globally from 2006-2024, identify causal mechanisms and tipping points, and assess which interventions have demonstrated reversibility.

Longitudinal analysis of V-Dem dataset (v14) covering 202 countries from 1900-2024, with focus on 2006-2024 democratic recession period. Operationalized backsliding using five composite indices: electoral democracy, liberal democracy, deliberative democracy, egalitarian democracy, and participatory democracy. Survival analysis for democratic breakdowns. Case-comparison of 22 countries that experienced backsliding, 8 that reversed, identifying divergence factors.

2024 marks the 18th consecutive year of net global democratic decline (V-Dem 2024). 71% of the world population now lives under autocratic rule — the highest share since 1978. The mechanism has shifted: 80% of democratic erosions since 2010 occur through elected governments dismantling institutions incrementally (autocratization by stealth) rather than military coups.

Key inflection points: once judicial independence is compromised, reversal probability drops from 34% to 8%. Once state media control exceeds 60% of broadcast reach, probability of democratic recovery drops to 4%. 71) of backsliding vulnerability.

Reversals (Poland, Brazil) required: external institutional anchors (EU accession conditions), economic elite defection from authoritarian coalition, strong civil society mobilization, and unified opposition. 2x faster institutional erosion in affected elections.